#SpecialIssue on #PolicyInnovation in the #GlobalSouth and South-North Policy Learning.

We finally published our special issue on Policy Innovation in the Global South and South-North Policy Learning with the Journal of Comparative Policy Analysis @JCPA_ICPA. Some of the contributions are free of access for the next couple of weeks so check them out. If you cannot find them, send me a message to @achkem for ungated versions.

The special issue covers an important topic, a topic which is also dear to me personally: Giving credit where credit is due to the enormous potential policy innovations in the Global South hold for the Global North. Standard literatures in public policy and related fields such as economics or social sciences tend to overlook or underestimate the learning potential stemming from policy innovations in the Global South. Even if they concede the potential of policy innovations in the Global South they rather think of this a sources of lateral learning (e.g. among countries of the Global South). The World Bank is a good example for such a segmented approach of learning which deems innovations from the Global South being mainly relevant for other countries of the Global South.

In the introduction to the special issue, I discuss instances of policy learning where the sender comes from the Global South and the recipient is in the Global North. After delineating what we mean by Global South and Global North, I identify some cognitive, methodological and institutional barriers to learning from the Global South. It becomes clear that we underestimate the potential and therefore overlook important innovations. I also discuss three major barriers or asymmetries (see table below) that both account for missed learning opportunities as well as reasons why we do not detect policy learning from South to North. Hence, while we do learn from innovations in the Global South, we do not document and acknowledge this learning adequately.

The special issue consists of four contributions from scholars all across the world, covering cases from Latin America, Africa and Asia. Two of the contributions show examples of glaring missed opportunities. To begin with, Corredor, Grimm, Ceesay and Wondirad document how several African countries dealt with COVID-19 as well as previous pandemics. The Global North often preaches concepts such as One Health, which is an attempt to see health as a holistic problem straddling everything from agriculture, the environment to public health in a narrow sense – but rarely does it do justice. To the contrary, several African countries are at the forefront implementing such holistic, bottom-up approaches to public health. The COVID-19 pandemic is particularly good example how countries in the Global North got stuck in their narrow, top-down logic to dealing with a Global pandemics, while African countries had much more experience built up over time. The authors draw on numerous sources, not the least on their own participant observation working with and in some of those initiatives. While the context for policy learning is very different in countries such as Ethiopia or The Gambia, the abstract principles and the general approach African countries chose gives much stimulus for thought. The authors also point out that the very fact that the administrative capacity is weak creates something one might call a paradox of weak state capacity: it spurs innovation.

Similar learning opportunities for the Global North arise in a completely different field: the way public administrations reach out to emigrant populations. Luicy Pedroza documents the remarkable policy arsenal Latin American countries have crafted to reach out to their emigrant populations, something richer countries could well take a note off. Harnessing an impressive database she and her colleagues compiled (Emigrant Policy Index Dataset – EMIX), she documents the tremendous learning potential how to administer citizens living abroad. Examples are Mexico’s extensive consular service for the diaspora in Mexico, or Ecuador’s representation of emigrants in the national parliament. She also shows that this much more than symbolic politics for many countries in the region, and that rich countries could do worse than studying such practices. For instance countries such as Germany are currently in a sever shortage of ‘skilled workers’. Since they never see themselves as countries of emigration they might lose out on a big pool of potential migrant workers. All in all, Luicy Pedroza not only contributes to the literature on emigrant policies, but also to public administration and public policy in more general.

The other two articles in this special issue take famous policy innovations from the global south and document that they made more inroads into the Global North than commonly acknowledged. Both contributions look at the forms how South-North policy happens, factors that accelerate it, and factors that impede it. It becomes clear that senders in the Global South are often not acknowledged, and that learning often happens in a concealed, repackaged or outright distorted way.

Kemmerling and Makszin, for instance, take the famous and notorious example of the Chilean pension reform (for a deeper discussion see here). While this is a textbook case for policy learning and policy diffusion, the overwhelming part of the narrative deals with the Chilean reform as an inspiration for other countries in the Global South and the former Communist world. The one exception that proves the rule is the US, in which proponents of privatization point at Chile as the testing ground of ideas developed by the famous Chicago school. This phenomenon of policy circulation is well documented. Yet, many governments and international organizations have closely monitored the events in Chile, even if few would dare to admit this. The reason, of course, is that Chile was an international pariah at the time (given the autrocious human rights record of general Pinochet’s military government), which made the way pension privatization happened in Chile totally unacceptable. For this reason in countries like the UK policy learning needed to be repackaged: separating the economic from the political aspects of the reform, and downplaying the importance of the sender, autocratic Chile.

Another example for a famous reform with an underappreciated learning effect in the Global North is the microfinance revolution, and the success of Grameen bank in particular. Again, most scholarly studies would focus on how microfinance inspired by events in Bangladesh spread throughout the Global South. To the contrary, few would systematically document its influence on microfinance institutions and regulations in the Global North. However, there are many clear examples of explicit and implicit learning and outright adoptions as Barua and Khaled demonstrate. The speed and depth of adoptions varied, consistent with the compatibility of the ideational and institutional context in the receiving countries. For instance, the US was much more permissive in this regard than – say – Germany. And yet, policy learning clearly happened from South to North and we should give credit where credit is due.

As a summary, the special issue will be interesting for people studying types and forms of policy learning, transfer and diffusion. It will also be important for those looking at policy innovations around the globe. We also think the special issue contains important lessons for how to level the playing field between research on and from the Global South.

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Volunteers Wanted for Teaching Students in Crises Countries

We look for volunteers interested in teaching courses to students in countries in which regular higher education is severely limited. We primarily seek volunteers in the fields of social sciences (e.g. political science, sociology, economics, law etc.) as well as humanities (e.g. history, philosophy & religious studies etc.) and related fields such as psychology or informatics. We will match them with ongoing online instruction initiatives in crises countries.

Background: In many countries across the globe, universities and institutions of higher education are under duress. Reasons are multiple ranging from severe and protracted conflicts to autocratic repression and censorship. Social sciences and humanities are especially affected, given that they instruct students how to think independently and critically about the ways societies work or should work. At the same time, such knowledge is indispensable in our world and crises countries in particular. For this reason, there are many initiatives bringing together university instructors, researchers and students from all sides of the globe to maintain a minimal infrastructure for higher education services in such countries. This call is part of a larger initiative to build up resources for a long-distance university for crises countries.

Idea: While such initiatives often work with tremendous success, they lack resources and networks. We propose to bridge this gap by matching volunteers with ongoing initiatives. The matching will be done on an individual, case-by-case basis, guaranteeing the necessary safety requirements for all sides involved, especially for participants from crises countries. The volunteers would teach entire courses or part of courses for university students in crises countries. They could also serve as external advisers to the programs and institutions in question.

Target Group: We know that volunteering is hard, but given the stakes at hand, it is also tremendously rewarding. We particularly envision senior academics or those with a lower teaching burden to be able and interested in giving online classes.

Benefits: While most of the rewards for the volunteers are instrinsic, we also propose to build up a community of senior experts in the long run that facilitate exchange between group members.

Please do not hesitate to contact us for further inquiries and more detailed information.

Achim Kemmerling

Gerhard Haniel Chair of Public Policy and International Development, Willy Brandt School of Public Policy, University of Erfurt

Achim.kemmerling@uni-erfurt.de

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South-North Policy Learning in the Case of Pension Reforms

Kristin Makszin and I have a contribution to a special issue on Policy Innovation and South-North Policy Learning. The special issue deals with still underappreciated forms of policy diffusion and learning from the Global South to the Global North and the enormous potential for policy innovation in countries of the Global South.

Our contribution looks as a famous case: pension privatizations inspired by the Chilean pension reform 1980/1. Given the fact that Chile was a kind of pariah in the eyes of many Western politicians, direct learning from the Chilean pension reform was handicapped. Because of this the translation of the Chilean model became repackaged, i.e. transformed in such a way that made it more palpatable as a recipe for other countries, also in the industrialized world.

For instance, while it is obvious that Thatcher maintained a close connection to Pinochet’s Chile, direct references to the Chilean model were muted. Similarly, the World Bank only reported certain aspects of the model, and downplayed others. Just as an example: The famous World Bank report “Averting the Old-Age Crisis” created a leitmotif of multi-pillar pension systems, i.e. a system with several different systems of old-age protection complementing each other. Ironically though, the main inspiration came from the Chilean pension reform (see figure), which effectively introduced a mono-pillar system (with some exceptions). This is just one instance of the larger issue how policy learning becomes distorted – sometimes with dramatic consequences. We discuss the types of repackaging of policy learning in our contribution as well as their larger implications.

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Folk Beliefs, Retirement Reforms and The Strikes in France




Hundreds of thousands of people are currently taking to the streets in France. They are protesting against President Emmanuel Macron’s pension reform. Why do people find it difficult to accept such a reform?

Credit: Photo by Isopix/Shutterstock (837653c) David Cerny art work entitled ‘Entropa’ – France as a nation on strike (greve)


The current strikes in France are nothing unfamiliar. Consider the Yellow Vest/ Gilets Jaunes movement, prompted by a 2018 fuel price hike and engulfing the country in riots for several months. The current strikes are following these protests, but they were ignited primarily over a law raising the regular retirement age from 62 to 64.

Such retirement reforms are always painful. It is no coincidence, for example, that it took a grand coalition between the SPD and the CDU to raise the statutory retirement age in 2006/2007 for the first time in Germany’s postwar history (Kemmerling and Truchlewski 2015). Before that, raising the retirement age was a kind of electoral taboo, i.e., a topic that all parties preferred not to deal with. If governing parties nevertheless made an effort to raise the retirement age, the respective opposition party could gleefully incite the population against a reform. The grand coalition of 2006 (temporarily) broke this deadlock and agreed on a reform unpopular to voters but necessary in the eyes of many pension experts.

Why do people find it difficult to accept such a reform? After all, many people should be aware that demographic change is a major challenge for all pension systems. In political economy, one main thesis is that these reforms are unpopular for voters because they affect most of them. Interestingly, however, even people who would not be affected by pension reforms (anymore) often vote against them. Therefore, we need to look deeper into the soul of the electorate:

One possible approach targets “folk beliefs,” commonly held, intuitively plausible, and thus largely unquestioned views in public opinion. One example is the often-heard belief that you cannot take jobs away from young people by making older people work longer. Economists refer to this – somewhat disparagingly – as an end-of-labor fallacy or a “lump of labor fallacy.” Indeed, it is not a given that every year an older person is expected to work longer is really at the expense of a year worked by a younger person. In the language of economists, these workers are not substitutes, but just cited as one counterargument.

But in some ways, economists also make it too easy for themselves. Leaving aside the question of whether processes such as digitization or globalization really reduce the number of jobs in a society: Many people believe so (Kemmerling 2016). And if they believe this, they will instinctively and vehemently reject reforms like the French one.

Incidentally, we find such attitudes not only in public opinion but also among politicians, for example, in parliamentary debates (Kemmerling & Gast Zepeda, 2022). This is not surprising because, first, politicians are also voters and may share their views, and second, it may make sense from an electoral perspective to support such views. Politicians need to support popular opinions. Thus, it is not surprising that French opposition parties were against the pension reform. Therefore, the Macron government was forced to bypass the parliament to pass the law. However, such an approach only adds fuel to the fire of the strikers.

In France, the situation is exacerbated because the previous working time policy went in a completely different direction. There, as early as 2000, a law aimed at reducing the working week to 35 hours for all employees. However sensible and progressive, such a law only reinforced “folk beliefs”, such as the idea of the end of work. Therefore, raising the retirement age not only seems like a turn of 180 degrees, but it also looks – intuitively – like folly in the eyes of many voters.


Demographic and technological change make it essential to adapt social systems. Neighboring countries such as the Netherlands show that this can be done flexibly and intelligently. The Dutch part-time policy also holds a template for a gradual transition to retirement (Schmid 2002; Hartlapp and Kemmerling 2008). Why can’t we all get there? What governments everywhere need to learn is how to communicate better necessary but unpopular reforms and how to find better compromises. Radical solutions only lead to loss of legitimacy, swelling resistance, or even to the reversal of reforms by later governments. In Germany, a good example are the Schröder government’s labor market and social reforms called ‘Agenda 2010’. Not only did they lead to a long-term estrangement with Schröder’s social-democratic party, and long-term political distrust especially in Eastern Germany, but they also led to partial reversals. A reform strategy must therefore take a much deeper approach to communication and deliberation and pay more attention to people’s fears and intuitions.

References

    Hartlapp, M. and Kemmerling, A. 2008. “When a Solution Becomes the Problem: The Causes for Policy Reversal on Early Exit from the Labour Force” Journal of European Social Policy, 18(4): 366-379 Kemmerling, A. 2016. “The End of Work or Work without End? How People’s Beliefs about Labor Markets Shape Retirement Politics.” Journal of Public Policy 36 (January): 109-38.
    Kemmerling, A., and Z. Truchlewski. 2015. “Fiscal Performance in Germany: The Role Of Electoral Competition.” In Deficits and Debt in Industrialized Democracies, edited by G. Park and E. Ide. London: Routledge.
    Kemmerling, Achim, and Gast Zepeda, Stephanie. 2022. “Tracing Fears about Digitalization and Automation in Social and Labor Market Policy Debates.” In Digitalization and the Welfare State, 214-36. oxford et al.: Oxford University Press.
    Schmid, G. 2002. “Paths to a new full employment. Transitional labor markets and activating labor market policies.” Frankfurt am Main: Campus.

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We hire a PostDoc/ Project Leader and Doctoral Student for Research Project on Digitalization and the Future of Work in Middle-Income Countries

For the project PolDigWork – Politics and the Future of Work in Middle-Income Countries, financed by the German Research Foundation (DFG), we are looking for a 1) PostDoc/ Project Leader and a 2) Doctoral Student.



1) Scientific Coordinator/Postdoctoral Researcher (f/m/d)
Pay Category E 13 TV-L (100 %)

Area of Responsibility

  • scientific coordination of the project “PolDigWork – Politics and the Future of Work in Middle-Income Countries” funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG)
  • design of basic elements of the project such as the theoretical framework, the research design, the methodology and the data collection of the project
  • conduct scientific research as part of the research project, including data collection and fieldwork
  • taking over the organizational and financial aspects of the project management including the organization of project events

The above-mentioned project work offers the possibility of further scientific qualification (e. g. habilitation) in the subject area of the project.

What we expect

  • successfully completed (at least good) academic university studies (Diplom/MA/ state examination) in public policy, social sciences, business administration/economics or computer sciences/IT
  • completed doctorate in one of the mentioned fields
  • knowledge in the field of digitalization and its social and political consequences
  • sensitivity to research in non-European contexts
  • mastery of social science methods (qualitative or quantitative); examples: Survey research, quantitative content and network analysis, or qualitative methods such as field research and interview techniques
  • fluency in written and spoken English
  • additional familiarity with one of the languages spoken in the respective countries (Spanish, Bahasa Indonesia, Zulu/Afrikaans)
  • knowledge of German is recommended, but not mandatory

Other desirable skills and experience

  • ability to work in a team
  • work experience in an international and culturally diverse environment

What we offer

The University of Erfurt promotes the compatibility of career and family/private life. To this end, it offers flexible working hours and various opportunities for further training. In addition, there are a number of health and prevention offers as part of the company health management.

Comments/Remarks

The German version of this job advertisement alone shall be legally binding.

The position is limited to 3 years in accordance with the project approval. The advertisement is addressed to applicants who fulfill the requirements of the German Act on Temporary Scientific Contracts (Wissenschaftszeitvertragsgesetz). The general requirements for employment according to § 91 section 5 Thuringian Higher Education Act (Thüringer Hochschulgesetz) apply.

If you have a foreign university degree, it is necessary that you apply for a certificate application at the Central Office for Foreign Education (Zentralstelle für ausländisches Bildungswesen, ZAB) and attach the corresponding certificate to your application documents. Please note that this is a chargeable service provided by the ZAB. For more information, please visit www.kmk.org/zab/zeugnisbewertung.

The University of Erfurt is committed to diversity and gender equality. It has been audited as a “family-friendly university” and has received the rating “equality excellent” in the female professor programme. One of the university’s strategic goals is increasing the proportion of women in research and teaching. Qualified female scientists are therefore particularly encouraged to apply. Severely disabled persons and those with equal status are given preference in the case of equal suitability, professional performance, and ability.

Part-time employment is possible in principle. The extent to which a part-time request can be met, particularly with regard to the location and scope of the part-time work, must be examined on a case-by-case basis.

For questions regarding content, please contact Prof. Dr. Achim Kemmerling (e-mail: achim.kemmerling@uni-erfurt.de).

Application and Deadline

Please send your application with informative documents (cover letter, curriculum vitae, copies of degrees and certificates, list of publications, presentations if applicable) exclusively online by 06.03.2023 via the application management system of the University of Erfurt.

Further Information: https://jobs.uni-erfurt.de/jobposting/4c189afc0282356934188f4f7688e6e91b8bb8ca0



2) Scientific Project Assistant (f/m/d)
Pay Category E 13 TV-L (65 %)

Area of Responsibility

  • participation in the project “PolDigWork – Politics and the Future of Work in Middle-Income Countries”, funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG)
  • contribute to basic elements of the project, such as the theoretical framework, the project’s research design/methodology, and the data collection process
  • undertake work packages of the project including country case studies and data collection
  • conduct project research, including data collection and field research
  • participate in the organizational and financial aspects of project administration, including the organization of project events

With the above-mentioned project work, there is an opportunity for own further scientific qualification (e. g. PhD) in the subject area of the project.

What we expect

  • successfully completed (at least good) academic university studies (Diplom/MA/state examination) in public policy, social sciences, business administration/economics or computer sciences/IT
  • interest in the topic of digitalization, especially its social and political consequences
  • sensitivity to research in non-European contexts
  • mastery of social science methods (qualitative or quantitative) or willingness to learn them; examples: Survey research, quantitative content and network analysis, or qualitative methods such as field research and interview techniques
  • fluency in written and spoken English
  • additional familiarity with one of the languages spoken in the respective countries (Spanish, Bahasa Indonesia, Zulu/Afrikaans)
  • German is recommended, but not mandatory

Other desirable skills and experience

  • ability to work in a team environment
  • ability to adapt to an international and culturally diverse environment

What we offer

The University of Erfurt promotes the compatibility of career and family/private life. To this end, it offers flexible working hours and various opportunities for further training. In addition, there are a number of health and prevention offers as part of the company health management.

Comments/Remarks

The German version of this job advertisement alone shall be legally binding.

The position is limited to 3 years in accordance with the project approval. The advertisement is addressed to applicants who fulfill the requirements of the German Act on Temporary Scientific Contracts (Wissenschaftszeitvertragsgesetz). The general requirements for employment according to § 91 section 5 Thuringian Higher Education Act (Thüringer Hochschulgesetz) apply.

If you have a foreign university degree, it is necessary that you apply for a certificate application at the Central Office for Foreign Education (Zentralstelle für ausländisches Bildungswesen, ZAB) and attach the corresponding certificate to your application documents. Please note that this is a chargeable service provided by the ZAB. For more information, please visit www.kmk.org/zab/zeugnisbewertung.

Further Information: https://jobs.uni-erfurt.de/jobposting/ca0400f30006d8ef4670a7cee70e1d9e10bd1f010



For more information about the project see here:

In English

In Spanish

In Bahasa Indonesia

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New Article on Development Aid and Regional Inequality in Pre-Coup Myanmar

After years of trial and error, we, i.e. Matteo Fumagalli and I, finally got this article out (send me a DM on twitter if you need an ungated version). It is an analysis of the relationship between official development aid of major donor countries and organizations and internal regional inequality in Myanmar. As we are cutoff from the country since last year’s horrenduous military coup, our analysis is mainly for the transition regime 2011-2021, but we think it holds valuable lessons for the country and perhaps also similar cases.

We use several empirical sources: data on night-time luminosity to measure regional inequality between Burmese core regions and the ‘periphery’; DAC data on aid flows to the Myanmar from all donors; interviews with representatives of donors and other key informants; as well as a mini-case study on higher education reform in Myanmar.

We look at donors’ reactions to the explosion of regional inequality in the country. It is noticeable that from 1992 onwards (first available satellite data) and, especially from 2008 onwards with the economic and political opening, there is a tremendous imbalance between economic activity in the Burmese mainland and the rest of the country.

own graph (see paper for details) showing night-time lights for regions and states in Myanmar (year 2012).

Donors struggled to keep up with this explosion of regional inequality. To a certain degree the share of aid flows that goes to the rest of the country has increased, but it is still dwarfed by flows to the Burmese mainland, and the central government in particular.

own graph (see paper for details) of aid flows to Myanmar states and regions between 1995-2015

We identify several reactions to this problem. Some donors, such as Japan, have chosen the technocratic ‘route’: delivering aid to the rural more isolated regions, but mainly in the form of infrastructure and agricultural projects and not really considering the social and political implications of such aid. Other donors such as the United Kingdom directly address political and social topics, e.g. the Rohingya crisis, but then hit heavy resistance from parts of the hybrid democratic-military regime at the time.

We also draw on our own, naturally somewhat biased and limited experience. We were part of a project of the Open Society Foundation contributing to the reform of the higher education system from 2011 onwards. We realized that it was very hard to deal with a recipient government that was adamant about keeping higher education centralized and focussed on one or two elite universities. If spillover to other regions happened it was mainly indirectly and informally.

While we do not have a ‘magic solution’ for this dilemma it would be good for major donors to acknowledge the enormous problems of regional disparities more directly and also to think about strategies that deal with these problems. For instance, we believe that Germany withdrawing its commitment in Myanmar before the coup, foresake the little bargaining space it had with the hybrid regime before the coup, let alone a way to help remoter, conflict-ridden parts of the country nowadays. See also here for a policy paper written by Matteo.

We are grateful to many people, especially in Myanmar, but also to colleagues who gave us comments. We also acknowledge funding from the British Arts and Humanities Council, the Open Society Foundation, the University of Erfurt and the Thyssen Foundation.

We also learned a lot during the reviewing process. Mixing several different methods and empirical sources made us vulnerable to criticisms from all academic perspectives. While this was painful at times, and considerably delayed the publication of the article, we also acknowledge the problems of Western ‘development experts’ writing on other countries. We hope we stroke a good balance between transparency in our biases and acknowledging our debts.

Dedicated to the brave people in Myanmar.

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Proyek Penelitian Baru: Politik dan Masa Depan Pekerjaan (Future of Work) di Negara Berpenghasilan Menengah (PolDigWork).

German Science Foundation (DFG) menyetujui proposal riset yang diajukan Achim Kemmerling yang berjudul “Politik dan Masa Depan Pekerjaan (Future of Work) di Negara Berpenghasilan Menengah (PolDigWork). Bagaimana Harapan dan Ketakutan terhadap Digitalisasi Membentuk Opini tentang Kebijakan Sosial dan Ketenagakerjaan.” Proyek ini mengamati dampak sosial dan politik dari digitalisasi dan otomatisasi pasar tenaga kerja di beberapa negara-negara berpenghasilan menengah. Selama tiga tahun, tim peneliti akan menggunakan pendekatan metode campuran dengan komponen survei asli yang dikombinasikan dengan analisis jaringan sosial serta studi kasus dari Meksiko, Afrika Selatan, dan Indonesia.

Judul Proyek Penelitian: Politik dan Masa Depan Pekerjaan (Future of Work) di Negara Berpenghasilan Menengah (PolDigWork). Bagaimana Harapan dan Ketakutan terhadap Digitalisasi Membentuk Opini tentang Kebijakan Sosial dan Ketenagakerjaan

Ringkasan proyek yang diusulkan:

Masa depan pekerjaan (Future of Work) memiliki implikasi yang sangat besar bagi politik dan kebijakan (utama) negara kesejahteraan, terutama kebijakan sosial dan kebijakan pasar tenaga kerja. Bentuk baru digitalisasi dan otomatisasi membentuk kembali cara masyarakat ‘bekerja’. Inovasi seperti bot dan robot mengubah sifat pekerjaan dan menciptakan jenis pekerjaan baru (seperti kerja gig atau gig work) dan sektor-sektor ekonomi. Mereka juga menghilangkan pekerjaan yang ada, mengotomatisasi tugas-tugas, dan membuat seluruh cabang ekonomi menjadi tidak berguna lagi. Ilmuwan sosial dan politik mulai memahami proses dan hasil transformasi ini di negara-negara industri maju. Namun, kita masih mengetahui relatif sedikit tentang konsekuensi politik dari masa depan pekerjaan di negara-negara berpenghasilan menengah. Apakah ketakutan dan harapan tentang digitalisasi membentuk ulang opini masyarakat dan elit politik tentang kebijakan sosial dan ketenagakerjaan? Dan apakah kedua hal tersebut membuat pembelahan yang ada seperti perbedaan antara sektor formal dan informal menjadi lebih kuat atau bahkan sebaliknya? Dengan menggunakan metode campuran dan analisis studi kasus tersarang dari Meksiko, Afrika Selatan dan Indonesia, riset ini akan menjawab pertanyaan-pertanyaan tersebut. Proyek penelitian ini menggabungkan temuan dari survei-survei sebelumnya dengan eksperimen survei asli di tiga negara tersebut. Temuan-temuan ini kemudian akan dikontraskan dengan hasil dari analisis isi media sosial dan dengan informasi dari wawancara para ahli. Penggunaan pendekatan komparatif dalam proyek ini akan memungkinkan kita untuk memahami bagaimana digitalisasi bekerja dalam masyarakat yang memiliki perbedaan mencolok. Akankah digitalisasi menciptakan jurang pemisah baru, memperkuat perbedaan yang telah ada, atau bahkan menguranginya? Oleh karena itu, penelitian ini akan memberikan sumbangsih terhadap literatur dan teori mengenai pembagian dan pembelahan sosial di negara-negara berpenghasilan menengah. Pertanyaan-pertanyaan di atas dan proses-proses yang mendasarinya lebih sulit untuk diamati di negara-negara seperti Jerman, di mana informalitas kurang menonjol, namun masih memiliki persoalan signifikan dalam menghadapi digitalisasi. Dengan demikian, riset ini akan menghasilkan pemahaman yang mendalam tidak hanya untuk negara-negara/kawasan yang diteliti melainkan juga di luarnya.

Terima kasih kepada Teuku Harza Mauludi atas terjemahannya

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Nuevo proyecto de investigación: Política y el Futuro del Trabajo en Paises con Medios Recursos:

La Fundación Alemana de Investigación (Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft – DFG) accepta propuesta de investigación de Achim Kemmerling, Gerhard Haniel Profesor de Políticas Públicas y Desarrollo Internaciónal, Brandt School, Universidad de Erfurt, Alemania. El proyecto tiene el título “Política y el Futuro del Trabajo en Paises con Medios Recursos. ¿Cómo influyen esperanzas y miedos  las opiniones sobre políticas laborales y sociales”. El proyecto durará tres años y incluye financiamiento para una posición PostDoc y una para un estudiante de doctorado (las plazas se anunciarán en unas semanas).

Resumen del proyecto:

El futuro de trabajo tiene consequencias enormes para la politica de los estados de bienestar, y las políticas laborales y sociales. Nuevas formas de digitalización y automatización reconfiguran cómo se trabaja en la sociedad. Innovaciones como bots y robots cambian la naturaleza del trabajo y crean nuevas formas del trabajo (p. Ej. Gig work) y nuevos sectores económicos. También destruyen trabajos porque automatizan tareas humanas y hacen redundantes sectores económicos.  Sociólogos y politólogos comienzan a comprender los procesos y resultados de esta transformación en los países industrializados avanzados. Sin embargo, en el caso de los países de renta media, todavía sabemos relativamente poco sobre las consecuencias políticas del futuro del trabajo. ¿Los temores y las esperanzas sobre la digitalización modifican las opiniones de los ciudadanos y de las élites políticas sobre las políticas sociales y laborales? ¿Y hacen más fuertes o más débiles los clivajes existentes, como la diferencia entre los sectores formal e informal?

Este proyecto emplea métodos mixtos y un análisis de estudios de caso en México, Sudáfrica e Indonesia. Combina los resultados de las encuestas existentes con un survey experiment original en los tres países. Estas conclusiones se contrastarán con los resultados de un análisis de contenido de los medios de comunicación social y con la información de las entrevistas a expertos. Gracias a su enfoque comparativo, el proyecto nos permitirá comprender cómo funciona la digitalización en sociedades en las que se observan diferentes clivajes. ¿Provocará la digitalización nuevas divisiones, reforzará las ya existentes o incluso las mitigará? El proyecto contribuirá, por tanto, a la literatura y las teorías sobre las divisiones y los clivajes en los países de renta media. Estas cuestiones y los procesos subyacentes son más difíciles de observar en países como Alemania, donde la informalidad es menos destacada, pero sigue siendo un problema importante frente a la digitalización. Por lo tanto, el proyecto creará perspectivas incluso más allá de los países/regiones estudiados.

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New Research Project on Politics and the Future of Work in Middle-Income Countries

Photo credit: Desola Lanre Ologun (via Unsplash)

Teaser: The German Science Foundation (DFG) accepts Achim Kemmerling’s proposed project “Politics and the Future of Work in Middle-Income Countries (PolDigWork). How Hopes and Fears about Digitalization Shape Opinions on Social and Labour Policies.” The project looks at the social and political impact of digitalization and automation for labour markets in selected middle-income countries. For three years, a team will employ a mixed methods approach with an original survey component combined with social network analysis as well as case studies from Mexico, South Africa and Indonesia.

The prestigious German Science Foundation (DFG) has accepted Achim Kemmerling’s proposed project with the title “Politics and the Future of Work in Middle-Income Countries (PolDigWork). How Hopes and Fears about Digitalization Shape Opinions on Social and Labour Policies.”  The project will run for three years and includes financing for a PostDoc and a doctoral position.

Project Title: Politics and the Future of Work in Middle-Income Countries (PolDigWork). How Hopes and Fears about Digitalization Shape Opinions on Social and Labour Policies.

Summary of the proposed project:

The future of work has enormous implications for the politics and (core) policies of welfare states, especially social and labour market policies. New forms of digitalization and automation reshape how society ‘works’. Innovations such as bots and robots change the nature of work and create new types of employment (e.g. gig work) and economic sectors. They also destroy existing jobs, automatizing tasks and making whole branches of the economy redundant. Social and political scientists begin to understand the processes and outcomes of this transformation in advanced industrialized countries. Especially for middle-income countries, however, we still know relatively little about the political consequences of the future of work. Do fears and hopes about digitalization reshape the opinions of citizens and the political elite about social and labour policies? And do they make existing cleavages such as the difference between formal and informal sectors stronger or weaker? Employing mixed methods and a nested case study analysis of Mexico, South Africa and Indonesia, this project will address these questions. The project combines insights from existing surveys with an original survey experiment in the three countries. These findings will then be contrasted with results from a content analysis of social media and with information from expert interviews. With its comparative approach, the project will allow us to understand how digitalization works in societies in which we see differently salient divides. Will digitalization provide new divides, reinforce existing divides or perhaps even mitigate them? The project will therefore contribute to the literature and theories on divides and cleavages in middle-income countries. Such questions and the underlying processes are harder to observe in countries like Germany, where informality is less salient, but still poses an important problem in the face of digitalization. The project will thus create insights even beyond the countries/ regions studied.

The project team will consist of Prof. Kemmerling, a three-year PostDoc as second principal investigator and a PhD (66% position). Please check our websites regularly for the job calls which will follow soon.

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Meine 8 Jahre Leben mit Orbans Propaganda und was das für den praktischen Umgang mit Meinungen zu Putins Krieg bedeuten könnte

Wir EuropäerInnen haben in den friedlichen Jahren nach 1989 verlernt, mit Propaganda umzugehen. Dabei sind die Zeiten zur Manipulation öffentlicher Meinung so gut wie nie. Jede große Kommunikationsrevolution, so fortschrittlich sie wirken mag, brachte immer auch Zwietracht, Polarisierung und Konflikt hervor, welche durch gezielte oder ungezielte Beeinflussung öffentlicher Meinung maßgeblich verschlimmert wurde. So hat die massenhafte Verbreitung billiger (Schund-)Presse zu nationalistischen Aufwallungen in allen beteiligten Ländern des ersten Weltkriegs geführt. Die Erfindung und Verbreitung des Buchdrucks wird häufig in Verbindung mit Religionskriegen in Europa gebracht. Daher ist es nicht erstaunlich, dass auch das Internet und soziale Medien, neben allen Vorteilen, großes Potential zum Missbrauch haben.

Ich selbst habe dies acht Jahre in Ungarn erlebt, und das, obwohl mein Ungarisch alles andere als gut ist. Während dieser Zeit hat das Orban Regime eine gigantische Propagandamaschine aus Plakaten, Zeitungsannoncen, sozialen Medien, Fernsehberichten, bis hin zu Gas-/Stromrechnungen mit politischen Inhalten angeworfen. Natürlich unter freundlicher Mithilfe des „großen Bruders“ aus Moskau, der Orban auch mit zahlreichen finanziellen und technischen Hilfen unterstützt.

Als regelmäßiger Spaziergänger – wir haben einen Hund – bekommt man die Früchte dieser Propaganda en passant deutlich zu spüren. Um nur mal die verrückteste These zu nehmen, die ich in dieser Zeit gehört habe: Der Grund, warum Deutschland 2015/6 zahlreiche syrische Bürgerkriegsflüchtende aufnahm, lag darin, dass Deutschland nach dem zweiten Weltkrieg von französisch-moslemischen Besatzungssoldaten unterworfen und heimlich islamisiert wurde!

Mittlerweile verstehen wir gut, dass es derzeit in allen Industrieländern eine große rechtspopulistisch und rechtsradikale Propagandakampagne gibt, die versucht, demokratische Institutionen infrage zu stellen, nationalistische Gefühle zu schüren und xenophobe, rassistische und homophobe Ansichten zu verbreiten. Wenn jedoch schon eine Minderheit von Wählern Viktor Orban in einer elektoralen Autokratie zu einer stabilen Regierung verhilft, dann ist nicht verwunderlich, dass die russische öffentliche Meinung durch den KGB-ausgebildeten Diktator Putin noch viel stärker und erfolgreicher manipuliert wurde und, jetzt im Krieg, noch viel mehr manipuliert wird.

Doch darum geht es mir hier gar nicht. Mir geht es vielmehr darum, was man praktisch als Einzelner dagegen tun kann.

Und da, glaube ich, müssen wir immer noch viel dazulernen. Ich selbst bin ganz eindeutig kein Experte, aber ich will trotzdem ein paar praktische Überlegungen teilen. Denn es ist nicht damit getan, einfach auf die Manipulation hinzuweisen. Mit reinen Fakten, sofern sie denn in Russland und bei Putins UnterstützerInnen und SympathisantInnen überhaupt ankommen, ist es nicht getan.

1.) Wer tritt in Kommunikation? Sollte es sich dabei um einen Bot oder einen bezahlten Propagandisten handeln, lohnt sich die Mühe nicht. Manchmal erkennt man das schon an unwahrscheinlichen Twitterprofilen. Ebenso ineffizient ist der Umgang mit besonders radikalisierten hardcore Anhängern. Das ist zumeist Zeitverschwendung. Darüber hinaus gibt es jedoch eine breite Menge von Menschen, die von Propaganda vereinnahmt wurden, die man aber durchaus noch umstimmen kann und mE auch umstimmen muss.

2.) Bei solchen Menschen ist es absolut wichtig, sie gerade am Anfang nicht zu antagonisieren. Ich sage nicht, dass man mit ihnen sympathisieren soll. Aber man muss sie verstehen, etwas reden lassen. Gerade am Anfang ist es wichtig, Triggerworte wie ‚Rassist‘, ‚Nazi‘ etc. zu vermeiden. Nicht, um die Meinung des anderen zu tolerieren, sondern um sie zu unterwandern. Der direkte ‚Angriff‘ führt fast immer zu instinktiven Abwehrhaltungen des anderen. Daher sollte man, wenn überhaupt, immer nur Argumente des anderen kritisieren, aber nicht den anderen persönlich.

3.) Viele Arten von fake news enthalten einen mikroskopisch-großen Anteil von Wahrheit. Nehmen wir Putins angeblichen Feldzug gegen ukrainische Neonazis. In der Tat gibt es in der Ukraine hässliche Auswüchse des Rechtsextremismus. Die eigentliche fake news liegt in der grotesken Übertreiben, nämlich dass die ukrainische Regierung nur aus Neonazis bestünde, und sogar einen Genozid gegen russische BürgerInnen in der Ukraine betreibe. Daher muss die Argumentation eher darauf basieren, die Unverhältnismäßigkeit eines Angriffskrieges zu betonen. Man kann auch über reductio ad absurdum gehen: Wenn Putin etwas gegen Neonazis hat, müsste er mit sich und vielen seiner Anhänger in einen Krieg treten, denn seine Ansichten sind eindeutig rechtsradikal. Außerdem unterstützt Putin – und das wissen die meisten Leute mit rechter Gesinnung selbst – rechtsradikale und rechtspopulistische Bewegungen in vermutlich allen europäischen Ländern.

4.) Es ist aus meiner Erfahrung wenig hilfreich direkt gegen ein Argument, ein Faktum anzureden, sondern eher bestehende Meinungen indirekt zu destabilisieren. In Ungarn habe ich, wie auch in Deutschland, oft gehört, dass Intellektuelle sowieso nur sich selbst überhöhen wollen und angeblich weniger Gebildeten unwahre Dinge erzählen. Dieser Reflex ist in postkommunistischen Ländern meiner Erfahrung nach noch stärker ausgeprägt. Ich sage in solchen Fällen immer, dass das sein kann, aber dass in meiner Kindheit die coolsten Typen alle Handwerker waren, und dass bei uns niemand auf ‚einfache Werktätige‘ herabsah. Es geht um das Aufbrechen von Narrativen – das ist ein schwieriger, komplexer Prozess, der viel Fingerspitzengefühl benötigt. Wenn man jedoch mal eine solche Basis aufgebaut hat, kann man sich auch an politisch viel heiklere Themen machen.

5.) Sollte man tatsächlich etwas ‚Terrain‘ gewonnen haben, sollte man diese Tatsache am besten gar nicht groß thematisieren oder bewerten. Allenfalls dafür danken, dass der andere sich Zeit genommen hat. Keinesfalls betonen, dass der andere Zeit/ Energie oder sogar an Ruf eingebüßt hat. Die meisten professionellen Konfliktschlichter betonen, dass es ganz entscheidend ist, dass die andere Seite ihr Gesicht wahren kann. In Zeiten eines Krieges klingt dies wie ein unzumutbares Zugeständnis, aber es ist zumeist die einzige Alternative. Wie gesagt, so etwas kann nicht für Kriegsverbrecher gelten, wohl aber für politische hochgradig manipulierte Mitläufer- und SympathisantInnen.

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