Article in JPP: The political consequences of the lump of labour fallacy on welfare state reforms

Here is a piece I have been working on for eight years now! (Talk about efficiency…) I paste the abstract and the link:
The end of work or work without end? How people’s beliefs about labour markets shape retirement politics
Achim Kemmerling

Department of Public Policy, CEU Budapest, Hungary E-mail: Kemmerlinga@ceu.hu

Abstract

This article argues that public opinion on retirement is related to people’s causal beliefs about how labour markets work. Whereas voters do not think that there is an employment trade-off between older and younger workers in some European countries, in others, this is a dominant paradigm. When they believe this trade-off exists, people are more hostile to reforms that lead to longer working lives. The article uses Eurobarometer data to investigate the determinants of this belief – for instance, more people being led to believe in such a trade-off under high levels of labour market regulation. The article then goes on to show that this belief is related to policy preferences about early retirement. Finally, the article illustrates the political consequences of this belief and shows that it affects many policy areas even beyond early retirement.

For details and the paper:

Journal of public policy

For an ungated version see Kemmerling_JPP_manuscript_for_website.

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